Public Opinion, Technical Advancements, and Enlargement Dynamics in the Western Balkan Six: A comparative Analysis

Public opinion’s support is a crucial factor when it comes to policies’ implementation and sustainability. This article analyses public opinion in the Western Balkan (WB) countries towards the European Union (EU). After assessing the state of play of the negotiation process between the EU and the six WB entities through the analysis of the 2025 “Enlargement package”, WB public attitude vis-à-vis the EU will be examined synchronically and diachronically, drawing on two questions from the 2025 Balkan Barometer: 1) Q17 – “Would you say that your ECONOMY1 will become a member of the EU?” and 2) Q15 – “Do you think that EU membership of your ECONOMY would be good, neither good nor bad, or bad?”. Findings reveal an increasing public optimism towards the accession and towards the benefits it would bring to the respondents’ countries in 2025. This latest development is in contrast with the trend of the last years, in which distrust towards the EU was mounting. Credits for this renewed enthusiasm must be given to the narrative set up by the European Commission, about the current window of opportunity for enlargement driven by the geopolitical imperative. Nonetheless, the EU must now deliver on its promises to (gradually) integrate the WB region by balancing the geopolitical necessity with merit-based approach, without allowing for dangerous shortcuts. The EU should also acquire a role of problem solver in the region’s complexity, being active in solving disputes, vocal in supporting democracy, and regain the transformative role it used to have.