Dazi, investimenti esteri e prospettive di ripresa dell’industria manifatturiera USA

This paper discusses the effects of the Trump II administration’s tariff policies on international trade and the outlook for the US manufacturing industry, with a particular focus on the impact on global value chains (GVCs). In a context of international fragmentation of production, the increase in tariffs risks compromising the functioning of GVCs, amplifying production costs along supply chains and affecting the competitiveness of US companies, many of which operate through intra-firm trade. In fact, the imposition of duties on intermediate goods multiplies customs and administrative burdens, with potentially deleterious effects on export capacity and the attractiveness of foreign direct investment. Furthermore, historical and recent experience shows that such measures are unable to generate significant reshoring processes or sustain manufacturing production in the absence of adequate industrial policy and long-term public investment. On the contrary, protectionist policies risk further weakening the US manufacturing base, exacerbating economic and social inequalities. The conclusions highlight the risks that the current protectionist drift poses to the global economic system.