The Neo‐populist Surge in Italy between Territorial and Traditional Cleavages

The rise of neopopulist parties in Western countries is a current issue in social sciences. Over the past two decades, and with increasing emphasis in recent years, a notable body of research has been preoccupied with explaining the complex relationship between populism and places. This paper fits in this literature and is aimed at verifying the role played by territorial inequalities and the urban-rural divide on voting preferences in Italy. Through a detailed statistical analysis carried out at the municipal scale, we hereby compare recent trends in national (2013, 2018) and European (2019) Elections with socioeconomic and demographic data to shed light on the drivers of political change. In particular, we focus on the two main Italian parties labeled as populist: the Lega and the Movimento 5 Stelle. Analyses show that support for such parties is only partially related to rural areas, territorial inequalities, and place peripherality, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive explanation of the neo-populist surge. Accordingly, we argue that besides demand-side factors, other supply-side ones should be considered, especially in Italy, where electoral behaviors are embedded in diverse local geopolitical histories that still play an important role in orienting voting.