How exogenous is war? The links between economic, military, trade and industrial policies in the upsurge of Russia-Ukraine conflict

The current Russian-Ukrainian war has drawn a wide attention well beyond the territorial extension of the conflict. It has raised immediate and growing concern for its direct consequences in terms of human losses and material disruptions. However, the indirect implications for the world economy and politics can be even harsher, as the war increases uncertainty, undermines supply chains, deepens inequalities and induces a profound and costly structural change. Research has started focusing on these issues, uncovering factors underlying these tensions at global scale. This article sheds light on what appears to be a recurrent feature of wars in economic history. That is: wars are not exogenous phenomena whose effects on the economy, and on industries, need to be unravelled. It is the dynamics of economic systems and of industries, the intrinsic instabilities, strategies, and policies characterising them, that determine the rate and direction of conflicts and contribute shaping their effects.