A Ricardian Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Crop Production in Myanmar

This study employs a Ricardian analytic framework to investigate the current and projected impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on Myanmar’s agricultural sector. By analysing 330 pieces of 2017–2022 township-level data on crop productivity and 1990–2020 climate data, we estimate the economic effects of climate change on Myanmar’s agricultural crop production. The analysis reveals that the climate’s impacts on agriculture exhibit significant heterogeneity across different seasons and farm types. Most notably, increases in summer temperatures correlate with substantial crop revenue losses, highlighting the vulnerabilities faced during this critical growing season. Projections using three climate models (PCM, CGCM3, and CSIRO) indicate that climate change’s impact on agriculture will intensify through the 21st century, with estimates pointing to revenue declines in summer and winter of up to -25.85% and potential gains of approximately 23.02% during monsoon season. These projections highlight the precarious nature of agricultural productivity in Myanmar, where fluctuations in temperature and precipitation patterns can lead to marginal changes in crop revenues. Overall, the findings stress the urgent need for substantial investment in agricultural preparedness, adaptation strategies and integrated climate-change-mitigation policies to safeguard food security and enhance resilience in Myanmar’s agricultural sector amid escalating climatic challenges.