Referendum on Renzi: The 2016 Vote on the Italian Constitutional Revision

In the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum, a substantial majority of voters rejected the reforms promoted by Matteo Renzi, leading to his resignation as Prime Minister. Once again, an attempt to redesign the Italian institutional framework failed due to party conflicts. This time, the referendum turned into a vote on the head of government himself. Renzi’s attempt to strengthen his leadership using the referendum as a personal plebiscite backfired. This article examines the background to the institutional reforms and the changing dynamics of the referendum campaign. Then, it uses survey data to show diachronically what led to the victory of the No vote, and how party divisions influenced the outcome of the consultation. Discussing the final outcome, it argues that this could produce a sort of U-turn in the long Italian transition. The majoritarian (and presidentialised) democracy that had emerged during the so-called Second Republic appears today to be giving way to the proportional-consensual logic that characterised the First Republic. This kind of trend, however, could generate new tensions within the Italian political system, and may encourage further anti-system tendencies, given the anti-political climate spreading throughout Italy and beyond.